By Gaurav Arora
The February series Nifty futures started with a premium of around 135 points. The Nifty rolled around 81% and Bank Nifty around 77%. For the Index futures, FII has recently reduced shorts inducing their Net Index Long exposure to 34% which was at 22% at the start of series.
The Index is now likely to consolidate till 21500 is not breached on closing basis, for the rest of Feb series. 21450-21500 might be the immediate support and only a decisive close below it might bring in further downside.
VIX for the Nifty is currently at 16 and likely to remain in the 14 to 18 range implying a range of around 950 points in a month.
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For the Nifty, the IVs for the options remained around 16 levels in yesterday’s trade. For the Bank Nifty 29th February, 46000 strike Call option has huge open interest implying resistance at around 46400-46500 zone.
For the Nifty, the VWAP (Volume weighted average price) of February Futures is around 21800 implying that to be the resistance. Above this, Nifty is to be positively biased for the short term towards 22150.
With FIIs gradually reducing their short positions, we expect Nifty could consolidate between the 21500-21800 levels and ultimately may resume its upward journey.
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Sports betting site VPbet The ratio between Bank Nifty and Nifty is currently at 2.08, this ratio has a support at 2.03 and resistance near 2.20. We expect Bank Nifty to trade in tandem with Nifty going forward.
Sector-wise, Pharma and IT looks good in Nifty.
Nifty Calendar Spread:-
Sell Nifty 22 Feb 22000 CE @ 95
Buy Nifty 29 Feb 22000 CE @ 160
Spread @65, SL @ 30, Target 110
(Gaurav Arora – Derivatives Analyst, Religare Broking Ltd. Views expressed are author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)
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